Rising Missouri River Level?

Discussion in 'MISSOURI RIVERS TALK' started by Jnorman, Apr 24, 2007.

  1. Jnorman

    Jnorman New Member

    Messages:
    38
    State:
    Missouri
    I was looking at the river forcast from NOAA and right now the river at KC is at 11 feet. It is supposed to hold steady there until Thursday, and then by Saturday morning it is supposed to be nearly 19 feet. Why is this? I know we are supposed to get rain in the next day or two but I didn't think we were supposed to get that much.
     
  2. crazy

    crazy New Member

    Messages:
    2,090
    State:
    Kansas CIty, MO
    ummm it's whats north of here.. just because it's not raining here in kansas city. Don't mean it's not raining in other parts of our water shed. Besides when ever it rains locally that does nothing for the local water level.
     

  3. Mr.T

    Mr.T New Member

    Messages:
    2,553
    State:
    MO
    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mbrfc/ - click on the various tabs, especially "Forecast River conditions", "Observed Precipitation" and "Forecast Precipitation" - the reasons for the forecast rise should become pretty obvious.

    Another factor that goes into the level forecast is the release rate from Gavins Point Dam, the first dam upstream of the KC area. You can get a 3-day forecast here: http://www.nwk.usace.army.mil/water_reports/lakepool.fct - doesn't look like they're doing anything unusual at the moment - they'd have to release several days in advance to affect the level at Kansas City.

    But I'll buy your lunch if it's really anywhere close to 18.8 ft on Saturday morning as currently forecast - the river level forecasts are notoriously unreliable, apparently involving the use of chicken bones, tea leaves and tarot cards... Tomorrow morning, the forecast will completely different than today. And by Saturday, it won't look anything like it currently does.

    And there's one other thing to consider in the springtime... The Corps of Engineers generally does a "pulse" where they gush out a bunch of water for a few days, in some sort of effort to stimulate spawning in pallid sturgeon. This typically happens in early May, provided certain water levels upstream of Gavins Point are met.

    Read about the reasons for the pulse on page 3 of this PDF: http://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/mmanual/mrric/FirstTechWorkingGroupMeetingNotes-6-13-05.pdf - also the 2006 press release regarding the pulse: http://www.usace.army.mil/cw/hot_topics/ht_2006/may16_sturgeon.pdf and if you're really bored, the Corps Annual Operating Plan here: http://www.dnr.mo.gov/env/wrc/docs/2006-2007FinalAOP.pdf
     
  4. Jnorman

    Jnorman New Member

    Messages:
    38
    State:
    Missouri
    Ya, I realize precipitation in our area does not effect the water level here. I was just generalizing when I said "we" meaning midwest. Iowa and Nebraska are forecasted to get lots of rain in the next few days also. The fact that the forecasted levels are not very accurate solves some of my confusion. I couldn't see the amount of rain forecasted raising the levels that much. Thanks Mr. T, those were informative links.
     
  5. Mr.T

    Mr.T New Member

    Messages:
    2,553
    State:
    MO
    The precip forecast calls for 1 to 1.5 inches of rain across a huge area in the next 24 hours, on top of recent rainfall that possibly has the ground saturated already.

    Since the Missouri is the drainage for that whole area, it's going to get all the runoff that won't soak into the ground. If the rain forecast really holds up, the river may very rise to the level forecast. But I'm not counting on it.
     
  6. onlyriverfish

    onlyriverfish Member

    Messages:
    319
    State:
    Nebraska
    Name:
    james
    Yeah, been raining hard here last night and all day today. Creeks are bulging. 50deg air and Water was 60.5 deg water. Few channels and smaller flatheads caught on river yesterday and today (But not by me) .
     
  7. Cuz

    Cuz New Member

    Messages:
    7,241
    State:
    DeSoto, MO
    Good Stuff Mr T. Conventional wisdom says fish shallow when the rivers rise, but then again, these fish have humbled me so many times I try not to second guess em too much. :big_smile:
     
  8. Mr.T

    Mr.T New Member

    Messages:
    2,553
    State:
    MO
    If I had time, I'd *definitely* try to get out on the water here on Thursday as the river starts to rise. 18 ft here is incredibly high, so if it gets up that far, I'm not going near the river - there'll be so much trash you won't be able to find the water...
     
  9. lbaker3

    lbaker3 New Member

    Messages:
    275
    State:
    Topeka, Kansas

    I heard that Marty.:eek:oooh: I see now it is projected at 21 ft. for Sunday morning! Don't think I'll be going near the river this weekend either
    if that holds true.
     
  10. GaryF

    GaryF New Member

    Messages:
    3,649
    State:
    O.P., KS
    It could be an excellent time to fish the lower Kaw where it fills with the "back up" from the Missouri.
     
  11. Mr.T

    Mr.T New Member

    Messages:
    2,553
    State:
    MO
    True.

    Except you won't be able to launch at Kaw Point this weekend (see the Kansas River thread over in the Kansas forum... Some kind of "save the children" event going on over there Friday through Sunday...)
     
  12. GaryF

    GaryF New Member

    Messages:
    3,649
    State:
    O.P., KS
    I forgot about that. :sad2: :sad2: :sad2:
     
  13. crazy

    crazy New Member

    Messages:
    2,090
    State:
    Kansas CIty, MO
    Ahhh but there are 6 other boat ramps to use. That includes parkville because it should be usable for once!!
     
  14. GaryF

    GaryF New Member

    Messages:
    3,649
    State:
    O.P., KS
    It's at 15.95 and climbing with a bullet. I have to admit I agreed with your assessment when you said it, though.
     
  15. Mr.T

    Mr.T New Member

    Messages:
    2,553
    State:
    MO
    It ain't Saturday yet!:smile2:
     
  16. pk_powell

    pk_powell New Member

    Messages:
    3,485
    State:
    Missouri
    from Rulo Nebraska in fact hiway 159 Bridge is the only thing separating us. I am currently under a flood warning and I'm told that Camp Rulo is having Minor Flooding. I just hope it washes some big cats down through here!:big_smile:
     
  17. Seth

    Seth Active Member

    Messages:
    1,807
    State:
    Owensville, MO
    Is the water and Alton Dam and Chain of Rocks dropping any or is it supposed to rise way up also?
     
  18. dougc

    dougc Active Member

    Messages:
    1,709
    State:
    Independen
    Crossed the river at 291 HWY this evening, and you could tell the water was up, but there wasn't anything too big coming down river.
     
  19. dougc

    dougc Active Member

    Messages:
    1,709
    State:
    Independen
    She's still rising. Almost 7 feet in a little more than 24 hours.

    Marty may be buying lunch tomorrow!
     
  20. brad kilpatrick

    brad kilpatrick New Member

    Messages:
    2,666
    State:
    Kansas City
    cool I want BBQ!!!!