Thinking, hmmm, not my strong suit. I would have to agree that rising water usually turns the bite on. Reasoning is fairly simple. Rising water means water is now over what was dry land. That means exposed worms and other natural food are plentiful. Catfish tend to eat in frenzies so when the food is abundant, they hog out on everything they can find. By the time the water starts receding, they are full and the bite drops to almost nothing. This is not just for catfish, most fish react this way.